WELCOME TO IWPR'S IRAQI CRISIS REPORT, No. 10, April 2, 2003

RIFLES AND RADIOS ACROSS THE FRONT LINE Kurdish sources in Northern Iraq
report increasing defections from the Iraqi military. By Hoshyar Zebari
and Fawzi Hariri in Salaheddine, northern Iraq

THE FAKE FATWA Iraqi Shia reject the religious decree calling on Iraqis
to defend the country, insisting that it has been issued under coercion
from the regime. By Julie Flint in Beirut.

PLANNING FOR RECONSTRUCTION After the destruction a historic opportunity
beckons, but US plans to rebuild a post-Saddam Iraq are unclear. By Ghida
Al-Juburi in Washington.

US POLICY SETS BACK ARAB HUMAN RIGHTS The war in Iraq, and America's
response to 9/11, have undermined human rights activists throughout the
Middle East. By Kamel Labidi in Cairo.

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RIFLES AND RADIOS ACROSS THE FRONT LINE

Kurdish sources in Northern Iraq report increasing defections from the
Iraqi military.

By Hoshyar Zebari and Fawzi Hariri in Salaheddine, northern Iraq

As allied bombing of the oil towns of Kirkuk and Mosul intensifies, more
and more Iraqi soldiers - and, in recent days, officers - are defying
death squads operating in government-controlled areas in order to defect
to the "liberated" Kurdish area of northern Iraq.

In the last 24 hours alone, more than 100 soldiers including a number of
junior officers have succeeded in reaching safety in areas under the
control of the Kurdistan Democratic Party. Many others are reaching areas
controlled by the other main Kurdish party, the Patriotic Union of
Kurdistan.

This is no easy thing: regular Iraqi soldiers have a whole chain of
command above them and are controlled by two or even three different
groups including the Ba'ath Party militia; the Fedayeen of Saddam, a
ruthless commando unit under the nominal command of Saddam Hussein's
oldest son, Odey; and pro-government tribal militias whose loyalty is
bought with huge sums of money.

The Fedayeen are not monitoring the war; they are monitoring their own
side. They have authority to override the regular army and anyone
suspected of being not loyal is immediately executed.

In the Mosul area this week, on the western side of the northern front, a
Fedayeen unit killed 12 of a group of 16 soldiers who were attempting to
desert. The 12 were captured on a main road, tied up and shot dead. The
remaining four made it to safety.

A second group of defectors was killed in the Kalak region, and a third
while trying to escape from Kirkuk to Erbil.

In addition to strengthening its repressive apparatus in front-line areas,
the regime is rotating military units continuously. The aim is to prevent
contacts developing between the army and the opposition and to discourage
soldiers from defecting by separating them from their families. In the
last two weeks, units from the northern front have been moved to central
Iraq while troops from Mosul have been redeployed to Nasiriyah in southern
Iraq.

The soldiers surrendering to the Kurdish authorities report that towns and
cities in Saddam-controlled northern Iraq are under tight curfew. One
member of each family is issued with a special identity card that allows
him to leave the house to go shopping. Everyone else must stay at home.
All radios in the cities have been confiscated in an attempt to prevent
Iraqis getting news of the war - a clear sign of nervousness within the
regime.

Kurdish officials believe the Iraqi people will sooner or later rise up.
Kurds and Iraqis in government-controlled areas are discontented and short
of food. In 1991, after the Iraqi army was driven out of Kuwait, it was
only after five or six weeks of continuous bombardment reduced the army to
tatters that a popular uprising began. For the moment, the atmosphere is
not conducive to uprising.

Hoshyar Zebari is chief foreign policy spokesman and Fawzi Hariri is
assistant head of international relations for the for the Kurdistan
Democratic Party.


THE FAKE FATWA

Iraqi Shia reject the religious decree calling on Iraqis to defend the
country, insisting that it has been issued under coercion from the regime.

By Julie Flint in Beirut

Sheikh Mohammed Khaqani, a relatively junior cleric from the holy city of
Najaf, was visibly nervous as he read out the fatwa, or religious edict,
calling on the Iraqi people to defend their country. State-run television,
the mouthpiece of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, said the fatwa was
signed by Iraq's five most senior Shia clerics including Grand Ayatollah
Ali al-Sistani, the head of the entire Shia religious establishment.

Arab media took the broadcast at face value as evidence of the Iraqi
people's opposition to the US-led invasion of Iraq. When the pan-Arab
television station al-Jazeera highlighted the fatwa, its report, picked up
by the international press, went around the world.

An increasing number of Islamic clerics worldwide are telling the faithful
it is their religious duty to take up arms against the invasion of Iraq.
But leaders of Iraq's Shia community say this is not the position of most
Iraqi Shias, those with the greatest right to decide their own future.
They say the televised fatwa was a fake, a concoction of the regime -
evidence not of Shia support for Saddam, but of Saddam's continued abuse
of the Shia religion and its adherents. They say Saddam is killing,
coercing and bribing Shias in attempt to get Iraq's largest religious
community, the bedrock of southern Iraq, to fight for his regime - or at
least to give the impression that Shias oppose the war to remove him.

Abdul Magid al-Khoei, son of Ayatollah al-Sistani's predecessor, Grand
Ayatollah abu al-Qasm al-Khoei, said he had spoken to representatives of
the two most prominent ayatollahs named in the fatwa and had been told
that neither had signed it.

"It is the first time in our history that we see a fatwa signed by five
people," he said, speaking from a satellite telephone in region. "This
does not happen in our religion. I know Khaqani. He is a good man and he
was clearly frightened. He was taken by force and by force was made to
read this 'fatwa'. It has no significance because it comes from a
prisoner."

Shias from Najaf say they do not know the whereabouts either of Khaqani or
Ayatollah al-Sistani, who was put under house arrest, forbidden even to go
to the mosque to pray, after refusing an order from Saddam's younger son,
Qosai Saddam Hussein, to instruct worshippers attending Friday prayers to
pray for the regime.

They recall that during the allied war to evict Saddam from Kuwait in
1991, Ayatollah al-Khoei was taken to Baghdad and detained in military
intelligence headquarters. While more than 100 of his staff were arrested
in southern Iraq, the 92-year-old cleric was shown on television meeting
Saddam in his palace as if he were lending him his support.

None of the 100 clerics have been seen since. Some are known to have been
killed immediately after their arrest.

While Iraqi Shias are critical of the United States' management of the
war, and especially its plans to administer Iraq afterwards, many support
war as the only way to remove Saddam - even while recommending that Shias
remain neutral until it is clear the regime is crumbling. They recall that
Shias only rose up against the regime in 1991 after more than a month of
continuous bombardment had thrown the army into complete disarray.

"Nobody likes to see innocent people lose their life, but there is no
alternative to war," said Abdul Magid al-Khoei. "Saddam has killed
thousands and millions during his rule. This is the price Iraqis have to
pay to get rid of a dictatorship. Killing is not new to us - but until now
there has been no light at the end of the tunnel."

Similarly, Izzaq Shabandar, a leader of the newly formed, and
predominantly Shia, Movement for Reconstruction and Democracy, said, "If
you tell the Shias there is a new tax which means that one or two people
in every family will die, but Saddam will go, they will say: 'This is a
tax we will pay!'" Speaking in Beirut, he said, "It's a win-win situation
for them, because until now they have been dying for nothing."

Every day now, Shia leaders forced into exile to save their lives are
returning to areas bordering on Iraq - and sometimes penetrating inside
Iraq itself - in anticipation of the downfall of the regime. Contacted by
satellite telephone, they all tell the same story: under the overall
command of Gen. Ali Hassan al-Magid, known as Chemical Ali, Iraqi officers
are killing and detaining Shias who refuse to defend southern Iraq against
British and American forces.'

"Ten days ago, Ali Hassan shot four men from one tribe and took 40 from
another, saying he needed them as advisers," said Abdul Magid al-Khoei.
"Everyone knows they are being held as hostages. He personally executed
Sheikh Rahim Abdul Kerim, the leader of the al-Bazzun and al-Isa tribes
that live around Nasiriya. He visited the old man at home and asked why he
wasn't supporting the government. Sheikh Rahim said he was sick and in
bed. Ali Hassan asked why he hadn't sent his sons. The old man said: 'When
you are old and dying like me, that's a hard decision to make.' Ali Hassan
pulled out his pistol and killed him."

Hamid el-Bayati, London spokesman for the Supreme Council of the Islamic
Revolution in Iraq, said seven members of the ruling Ba'ath Party in Basra
were executed on Sunday for refusing to fight.

Al-Khoei said many tribal leaders had been paid vast amounts of money. "It
is a common practice," he said. "Saddam has money in one hand and a gun in
the other."

Julie Flint is Iraqi Crisis Report co-ordinating editor and a former IWPR
trustee.


PLANNING FOR RECONSTRUCTION

After the destruction a historic opportunity beckons, but US plans to
rebuild a post-Saddam Iraq are unclear.

By Ghida Al-Juburi in Washington

President Bush insists that the war on Iraq is about liberation and not
occupation. He promises that in the process of liberating Iraq and its
people, the U.S. will rebuild a better, Saddam-free nation. But while
Washington's decision to destruct has been crystal clear, its vision of
reconstruction is muddied.

Even as US bombs rain down on Baghdad, the Bush administration says it is
planning intensely for reconstruction, working towards a transformed
post-Saddam Iraq. Already, however, US plans are not going according to
plan. The US was confident that the Iraqi people would rise against their
dictator. But Saddam Hussein and his regime are appealing to Iraqi
nationalism and the people are responding - not because they love Saddam,
but because they love their country and do not want outsiders in their
country.

It seems inevitable that the US will eventually defeat an Iraq weakened by
war and sanctions. But the real US-led victory will only come with proof
that it can put Iraq in a better form than it was before - and do so
without alienating people throughout the region.

Rebuilding Iraq will decide not only Iraq's future, but also President
Bush's political career and future world politics. A successful war will
be one with minimal casualties and damage followed immediately by a
multilateral effort to rebuild before the dust from the last bomb has
settled. Success in Iraq will tell something about American power and how
it will be used in the world.

On 25 March, President Bush formally sent Congress details of a $74.7
billion package. According to the White House budget office, at least
$53.4 billion is for military operations in Iraq. Defence officials
earlier said that combat could cost up to $500 million a day. The military
funds also include $1.4 billion in aid for countries opposing Iraq and
helping the United States, $1.7 billion for reconstruction and $543
million for humanitarian aid and other needs in Iraq.

The Treasury Department is speaking about channelling revenues from Iraqi
oil production to aid the effort to rebuild the country. The Bush
administration also hopes to use $1.4 billion that has been frozen in US
banks since the first Gulf War.

The State Department's goal is to create stability and to have the US and
the United Nations oversee Iraq while it rebuilds. British Prime Minister
Tony Blair is in favour of this approach, which he feels will get the US
and Europe working together again. The Department of Defence, on the other
hand, supports American military occupation for as long as necessary. It
wants to re-base its Middle Eastern forces from Saudi Arabia to Iraq, with
a gradual transfer of power to elected Iraqis who are
"Washington-friendly".

The State Department has put together a list of Iraqi exiles, most of whom
are technocrats and live in the US, to go to Baghdad to serve as the front
men of Baghdad's new government as soon as possible after Saddam's regime
falls.

The US plans to divide Iraq into three regions for administrative
purposes. An Iraqi Interim Authority approved by President Bush on 15
March would include Iraqis from each of the country's major ethnic, tribal
and religious groups. It would progressively take over government
functions and would eventually help draft a new constitution. During this
interim period, the US plans to substitute the dollar for the Iraqi dinar
and the US military would have initial responsibility for running Iraq.

In the meantime, the administration has hired several Iraqi exiles who
plan to go to Iraq as soon as the regime collapses for contract periods of
between 90 and 180 days. Volunteers are also being considered for shorter
periods. These Iraqis will help in the early phases of reconstruction,
communication and humanitarian aid.

The US Civil Affairs Units will join the US forces in Iraq after the war.
Civil Affairs units will help military commanders work with civilians and
civilian authorities. They will assess disaster situations and support the
military operations.

UN relief organisations and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) are
uncertain about their role in rebuilding Iraq. President Bush plans on
sidelining UN, NGO and other development agencies in efforts to rebuild
roads, schools, hospitals and other buildings. Reconstruction contracts
worth more than $1.5 billion are already being offered for private US
firms. The Pentagon and the US Agency for International Development are
expected to choose the main contractor for a $900 million assignment to
rebuild Iraq's infrastructure.

Kellog Brown and Root, a subsidiary of Halliburton, were awarded the
contract to oversee any fire fighting operations in Iraq's oilfields. Vice
President Dick Cheney was chief executive officer of Halliburton between
1995 and 2000. As one of the largest global providers of equipment and
services to the oil industry, Halliburton needed a chief executive who
could ensure that the company had the government's full support. Cheney's
2000 income from Halliburton was $36,086,635. Ironically, under Cheney's
direction, Halliburton became the biggest oil contractor for Iraq, selling
more than $73 million in goods and services to Saddam Hussein's regime.

Once Saddam Hussein's regime is removed from power, a historic opportunity
will open to rebuild Iraq to its old glory. This will require a commitment
from the United States as well as the international community. The US must
be relentless in its security and financial support. This support should
expand beyond military parameters into economic, health, humanitarian and
policy and civilian efforts to revive a country and to help her help
herself and her beloved people.

Ghida Al-Juburi is an Iraqi-American corporate attorney working with the
US State Department on the Future of Iraq Project.


US POLICY SETS BACK ARAB HUMAN RIGHTS

The war in Iraq, and America's response to 9/11, have undermined human
rights activists throughout the Middle East.

By Kamel Labidi in Cairo

The US administration's decision to turn its back on the United Nations
and wage war on Iraq has dealt a severe blow to the Arab world's
struggling human rights movement. It is the second blow in less than two
years to an emerging human rights movement which already labours under
accusations of being a friend of Uncle Sam and a "traitor" to the Arab
cause.

Today the decision by so-called democratic states to choose the use of
force over international law, and the encouragement this gives
authoritarian governments to feel they can take the law into their own
hands, risks convincing many of those who defend human rights in the
region to stand down.

In a country like Egypt, where the state-controlled media has been blaming
Saddam Hussein for bringing a US military presence to the Gulf, the
decision to attack Iraq despite opposition from the Security Council has
led already prominent human rights defenders to stop challenging, for the
time being, the Iraqi regime's bloody human rights record. Opinion pieces
criticising the regime for invading Kuwait, gassing thousands of Kurds and
leading the country to chaos have vanished from most newspapers and
debates.

The first blow to Arab human rights activists came after the attacks on
the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, when the US government elected to
hold itself above international law and adopted some of the same tactics
in its war on terror as police states use to silence opponents.

"Your role collapsed with the collapse of the Twin Towers on September
11," a senior US security official told Amnesty International in December
2001. This blunt reaction came after the London-based human rights group
reminded the US government that even perpetrators of despicable acts are
entitled to basic rights such as those enshrined in the Universal
Declaration of Human Rights.

With the war in Afghanistan, the erosion of safeguards against the
arbitrary detention of non-US citizens and the denial of fair treatment to
hundreds of detainees flown to the notorious Guantanamo Bay camp had a
chilling effect on Arab human rights groups. Many found it troubling that
the country which claims to be the leader of the free world would resort
to legislative and administrative acts such as the Patriot Act that
violate internationally recognised rights. Washington's rising,
unquestioned support for Israel's dispossession of the Palestinians,
evidenced by its continuous veto of Security Council resolutions aimed at
holding Israel accountable for its deeds, only compounded these concerns.

In the wake of 9/11, a number of Arab governments tightened their grip on
civil society after US officials expressed admiration for some of their
methods. When Secretary of State Colin Powell said "we have much to learn"
from Egypt's anti-terrorist methods, which the US once criticised, Egypt
extended its 22-year-old state-of-emergency law for three years. Jordan,
another US ally, amended its penal code and press law to allow the
government to close down any publication for running "false or libellous
information that can undermine national unity or the country's
reputation."

The outbreak of war against Iraq dealt a second, crippling blow to efforts
to raise human rights awareness. In a very short time, the US-led war
turned Iraq's dictator, Saddam Hussein, into a less dangerous leader than
George W. Bush - even in the opinion of human rights activists, academics
and lawyers influenced by Western democratic values.

Today protests are being organised by Arabs from all walks of life: human
rights activists and opposition groups as well as administrations led by
notorious rights abusers. The war in Iraq is seen as the most dangerous
step ever taken by the US on the road to international lawlessness. The
most dangerous, certainly, but not the first: even before the Iraq war,
there was criticism of the United States' refusal to abide by
international conventions and treaties - among them the Geneva Conventions
and the Kyoto treaty on protecting the environment - and to sign up to the
International Criminal Court. Arabs generally believe that Washington
evokes international law only when it serves its own interests.

Such behaviour undermines efforts currently made by local, regional, and
international human rights groups to promote human rights education and
the rule of law in the Middle East.

In recent years, human rights awareness has been widening in the region,
even among senior officials. Morocco publicly pledged to abide by the
Universal Declaration of Human Rights and to facilitate unprecedented
cooperation with Amnesty International. Palestinian Authority leader
Yasser Arafat also pledged to abide by the declaration and his government
included human rights concepts in school curricula. Human rights education
awareness gained so much ground among Arab citizens that many
authoritarian rulers started paying lip service to human rights and even
talking to international human rights groups.

But this awareness might narrow if Arab governments conclude that, because
of the critical focus now on the United States, there is no pressing need
teach human rights in schools or abide by international standards for fair
trials. Human rights awareness and the rule of law will never gain
substantial ground in the Middle East as long as those who perpetrate war
crimes and attack civilians are not brought to international justice. This
applies to America every bit as much as to Iraq.

Kamel Labidi, a former director of Amnesty International Tunisia, is a
freelance journalist in Cairo.

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The reports are also being published on the Web in English, Arabic and
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This project is supported by the Polden Puckham Charitable Foundation and
International Media Support. IWPR also thanks the following for
institutional or development support which has assisted in the launch of
this project: the Dutch Foreign Ministry, the Ford Foundation, the
Ploughshares Foundation.

For further details on this project, other publications and IWPR
educational and media development programmes, visit: www.iwpr.net

Iraqi Project Coordinating Editor: Julie Flint; Editorial Assistant: Emma
Wallace

IWPR Project Development and Support -- Executive Director: Anthony
Borden; Director of Operations: Alan Davis; Managing Editor: Yigal Chazan;
Senior Operations Manager: Duncan Furey; Associate Editor: Alison
Freebairn

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democratic change.

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Copyright (c) 2003 The Institute for War & Peace Reporting

IRAQI CRISIS REPORT No. 10